World economic crisis

Vertigo in the world economy


With the combination of the European and US crises and the grotesque background of negotiation "in extremis" [in extreme circumstances], the world economy is going through an unprecedented situation, from the historical point of view. A never-ending vertigo is clinging to the United States and Europe. The world is waiting for the opinion and action of the rating agencies that are the ones that appear to give the final verdict. After the agreement reached by Obama and the Republicans, the agencies kept the triple A rating for the US debt, but Moody’s and Standard and Poor (S&P) changed it from "stable" to "negative." They had already lowered Greece’s grade, without reaching the level of default. After the summit in the Euro Zone, a tense calm was maintained, while the crisis erupted at the Capitol. With the sealing of the agreement between Democrats and Republicans, steep declines in the stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic have begun. Gold, German bonds and the Swiss mark are acting as an alternative shelter of value in view of the fall of the dollar and the euro. Switzerland announced that it is going to increase liquidity and reduced the fluctuation margin of the LIBOR rate (its main instrument of monetary policy) by 0.5%. At the same time, Treasury bonds continue attracting increased masses of capital, owing to the limited existing sources of international security.

QE3? and the European Stabilization Fund

In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average fell for 8 consecutive days, something that appears to have happened only 7 times in history, including the year when the US entered the Second World War. In Europe, because of this week’s stock sales, more than 400 billion euros of market capitalization of leading indexes of Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, or what is the same thing, almost the equivalent of the volume that the European Stabilization Fund has to carry out bailouts, vanished. Churchill’s much-cited maxim that says, "the Americans will always do the right thing ... after they have exhausted all the alternatives," well describes the modus operandi of both the US and Europe. In fact, strong pressure exists on Europe to put the bailout plan for Greece into practice, on the European Central Bank (ECB) to stimulate purchases in the secondary markets for greater volume than it is doing or for them to increase the amount of the European Stability Fund, to assure a possible bailout of Italy and/or Spain (the fourth- and third-largest economies of the region, respectively). In an action that has turned out to be unusual, the risk rating agency S&P demanded that the ECB intervene. This is a "dialogue" that is occurring directly "on the field." The agencies are pushing for the decline, and meanwhile they are notifying governments or financial organizations what it is they have to do so that they will stop pushing. For their part, governments and summit meetings are venturing plans by estimating the reaction of the markets and rating agencies. Faced with the very bad prospect of the US economy and stocks, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P closed yesterday, August 3, on positive ground. It is speculated that this responds to the fact that a new round of financial measures, a QE3, is being prepared.

Limits of state intervention

It can be interpreted that this kind of action at the extreme, at the edge of the abyss, this parody of negotiation in extreme circumstances of governments, congresses and summits, in front of the menacing look of the rating agencies, corresponds both to the weight of globalized finance capital, represented in the agencies, and to the limited ability to act that states now have. What is happening, the way in which events are unfolding, is a proof of that limited ability to act. It is not necessary to wait very long; it can already be seen that they are unable to act as they did after the crisis at Lehman Brothers. The structural basis of the situation of weakness is the fact that clearly recessive elements (the situation of the United States and the Euro Zone) are being combined, at the same time that increasingly worse austerity measures and cutbacks are being implemented. Obviously, this situation does not have a "happy ending." As a last resort, it would be something just like letting the crisis take its course... It is a situation that in a way resembles 1937 in the US, when Roosevelt removed the stimuli. A big difference is that in 1937 the economy was not in decline. The drop began when the plans were removed. The current situation is, in a sense, worse, because the decline has already begun, and, at the same time, stimuli are constantly being withdrawn, and austerity measures and cuts are being increased. This is largely the most that governments have, to intervene to avoid a new Lehman Brothers crisis, no matter how much they want to. It is obvious that the bourgeoisie has learned its lessons both from the 1930’s and from the Lehman Brothers crisis, so it is not very difficult to imagine that they want to avoid a new Lehman Brothers crisis. The problem is that, in order to avoid another scenario like that at the end of 2008, it is likely they will need to use a lot of resources that are precisely the ones they are trying to cut. There is a kind of contradiction in terms between withdrawing the plans, reducing expenditures, etc., and an intervention sufficiently forceful to avoid a new Lehman Brothers crisis. Although it is not possible to rule out the implementation of more forceful plans as a last resort, it would appear that these elements are the ones behind this explosive situation, that does not stop developing nor finish exploding.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Related articles

No hay comentarios a esta nota


  • PTS (Argentina)

  • Actualidad Nacional

    MTS (México)


    LTS (Venezuela)

  • DOSSIER : Leur démocratie et la nôtre

    CCR NPA (Francia)

  • ContraCorriente Nro42 Suplemento Especial

    Clase contra Clase (Estado Español)

  • Movimento Operário

    MRT (Brasil)

  • LOR-CI (Bolivia) Bolivia Liga Obrera Revolucionaria - Cuarta Internacional Palabra Obrera Abril-Mayo Año 2014 

Ante la entrega de nuestros sindicatos al gobierno

1° de Mayo

Reagrupar y defender la independencia política de los trabajadores Abril-Mayo de 2014 Por derecha y por izquierda

La proimperialista Ley Minera del MAS en la picota

    LOR-CI (Bolivia)

  • PTR (Chile) chile Partido de Trabajadores Revolucionarios Clase contra Clase 

En las recientes elecciones presidenciales, Bachelet alcanzó el 47% de los votos, y Matthei el 25%: deberán pasar a segunda vuelta. La participación electoral fue de solo el 50%. La votación de Bachelet, representa apenas el 22% del total de votantes. 

¿Pero se podrá avanzar en las reformas (cosméticas) anunciadas en su programa? Y en caso de poder hacerlo, ¿serán tales como se esperan en “la calle”? Editorial El Gobierno, el Parlamento y la calle

    PTR (Chile)

  • RIO (Alemania) RIO (Alemania) Revolutionäre Internationalistische Organisation Klasse gegen Klasse 

Nieder mit der EU des Kapitals!

Die Europäische Union präsentiert sich als Vereinigung Europas. Doch diese imperialistische Allianz hilft dem deutschen Kapital, andere Teile Europas und der Welt zu unterwerfen. MarxistInnen kämpfen für die Vereinigten Sozialistischen Staaten von Europa! 

Widerstand im Spanischen Staat 

Am 15. Mai 2011 begannen Jugendliche im Spanischen Staat, öffentliche Plätze zu besetzen. Drei Jahre später, am 22. März 2014, demonstrierten Hunderttausende in Madrid. Was hat sich in diesen drei Jahren verändert? Editorial Nieder mit der EU des Kapitals!

    RIO (Alemania)

  • Liga de la Revolución Socialista (LRS - Costa Rica) Costa Rica LRS En Clave Revolucionaria Noviembre Año 2013 N° 25 

Los cuatro años de gobierno de Laura Chinchilla han estado marcados por la retórica “nacionalista” en relación a Nicaragua: en la primera parte de su mandato prácticamente todo su “plan de gobierno” se centró en la “defensa” de la llamada Isla Calero, para posteriormente, en la etapa final de su administración, centrar su discurso en la “defensa” del conjunto de la provincia de Guanacaste que reclama el gobierno de Daniel Ortega como propia. Solo los abundantes escándalos de corrupción, relacionados con la Autopista San José-Caldera, los casos de ministros que no pagaban impuestos, así como el robo a mansalva durante los trabajos de construcción de la Trocha Fronteriza 1856 le pusieron límite a la retórica del equipo de gobierno, que claramente apostó a rivalizar con el vecino país del norte para encubrir sus negocios al amparo del Estado. martes, 19 de noviembre de 2013 Chovinismo y militarismo en Costa Rica bajo el paraguas del conflicto fronterizo con Nicaragua

    Liga de la Revolución Socialista (LRS - Costa Rica)

  • Grupo de la FT-CI (Uruguay) Uruguay Grupo de la FT-CI Estrategia Revolucionaria 

El año que termina estuvo signado por la mayor conflictividad laboral en más de 15 años. Si bien finalmente la mayoría de los grupos en la negociación salarial parecen llegar a un acuerdo (aún falta cerrar metalúrgicos y otros menos importantes), los mismos son un buen final para el gobierno, ya que, gracias a sus maniobras (y las de la burocracia sindical) pudieron encausar la discusión dentro de los marcos del tope salarial estipulado por el Poder Ejecutivo, utilizando la movilización controlada en los marcos salariales como factor de presión ante las patronales más duras que pujaban por el “0%” de aumento. Entre la lucha de clases, la represión, y las discusiones de los de arriba Construyamos una alternativa revolucionaria para los trabajadores y la juventud

    Grupo de la FT-CI (Uruguay)